IditaProject Forum

Have you looked at the effect the storm had on the front of the race? Here are the positions coming into Shak, into Unk, and into Nome. Jeff, Hugh, Hans, Sonny, Paul, and Aly slipped substantially. Dallas and Jessie moved way up. Interesting, eh?

Eric
Race Position
into into into
Unk Shak Nome
1 1 1 Lance Mackey
2 14 12 Jeff King
3 2 2 Sebastian Schnuelle
4 3 3 John Baker
5 6 4 Mitch Seavey
6 8 7 Aaron Burmeister
7 12 15 Hugh Neff
8 15 10 Hans Gatt
9 16 11 Sonny Lindner
10 5 6 Dallas Seavey
11 9 5 Cim Smyth
12 18 16 Paul Gebhardt
13 11 13 DeeDee Jonrowe
14 17 17 Aliy Zirkle
15 7 8 Jessie Royer

Can't seem to get the table to stay formatted - oh well you get the idea.

Great break down Eric, yeah very interesting! I think we found our new forum statistician!

eorogers wrote:Have you looked at the effect the storm had on the front of the race? Here are the positions coming into Shak, into Unk, and into Nome. Jeff, Hugh, Hans, Sonny, Paul, and Aly slipped substantially. Dallas and Jessie moved way up. Interesting, eh?

Eric
Race Position
into into into
Unk Shak Nome
1 1 1 Lance Mackey
2 14 12 Jeff King
3 2 2 Sebastian Schnuelle
4 3 3 John Baker
5 6 4 Mitch Seavey
6 8 7 Aaron Burmeister
7 12 15 Hugh Neff
8 15 10 Hans Gatt
9 16 11 Sonny Lindner
10 5 6 Dallas Seavey
11 9 5 Cim Smyth
12 18 16 Paul Gebhardt
13 11 13 DeeDee Jonrowe
14 17 17 Aliy Zirkle
15 7 8 Jessie Royer

Can't seem to get the table to stay formatted - oh well you get the idea.

Actually what you have posted are the out order of Unk not coming into order and I think you posted Koyuk in rather than Shak in. Coming in would look like this (and more telling to include Koyuk):

Unk Shak Koyuk Nome Musher
1 1 1 1 Lance Mackey
2 5 7 4 Mitch Seavey
3 7 12 15 Hugh Neff
4 6 8 7 Aaron Burmeister
5 4 3 3 John Baker
6 3 2 2 Sebastian
7 2 14 12 Jeff King
8 8 15 10 Hans Gatt
9 11 9 5 Cim Smyth
10 9 16 11 Sonny Lindner
11 10 5 6 Dallas Seavey
12 15 6 8 Jessie Royer
13 16 13 14 Ken Anderson
14 14 17 17 Aliy Zirkle
15 12 18 16 Paul Gebhardt
16 13 11 13 Deedee
17 17 4 9 Ramey Smyth

I would say the biggest jumps between Unk and Nome are Cim, Jessie, Dallas and Ramey.

You are right - what can I say - bad case of old timers I had it in Excel and lost all my formatting when I brought it over. I concentrated on the formatting and completely blew the headers. It should be into Shak and into Koyuk. Good thing I went into Physics instead of Statistics, eh?

This year's weather motivated me to go back and reread Brian O'Donoghue's book "my lead dog was a lesbian" (he was trying to be cute with the tittle) about the 1991 race. That was the year Rick Swenson marched through the storm to take his 5th victory (Susan had the lead but turned back to White Mountain). Martin Buser followed Rick through the storm. Martin later said that was when he learned how to win, which he did the next year. This years storm was substantial, but I think it was a far cry from the bad years like 1991, or 1985 (when Libby won). I'm sure there were others - anyone remember?

Eric

I'd be curious to see the correlation between the musher's ages and their movement up or down the standings. Based on my very limited knowledge of the mushers, seems like it was more of the young guns who chose to move on through the storm and the older folks who played it safe. Their ages don't seem to be listed on the website, though, and I'm too lazy to go look them up, so I'll leave that analysis to some other statistician

What does anybody recall about Jessie Royer's race from Shak to Koyuk - 15th at Shak to 6th in Koyuk? - was she traveling near anybody or just flying by alone. She came into Nome 8th - I had her 6th in my TTP. ...Dave

tamra wrote:Actually what you have posted are the out order of Unk not coming into order and I think you posted Koyuk in rather than Shak in. Coming in would look like this (and more telling to include Koyuk):

Unk Shak Koyuk Nome Musher
1 1 1 1 Lance Mackey
2 5 7 4 Mitch Seavey
3 7 12 15 Hugh Neff
4 6 8 7 Aaron Burmeister
5 4 3 3 John Baker
6 3 2 2 Sebastian
7 2 14 12 Jeff King
8 8 15 10 Hans Gatt
9 11 9 5 Cim Smyth
10 9 16 11 Sonny Lindner
11 10 5 6 Dallas Seavey
12 15 6 8 Jessie Royer
13 16 13 14 Ken Anderson
14 14 17 17 Aliy Zirkle
15 12 18 16 Paul Gebhardt
16 13 11 13 Deedee
17 17 4 9 Ramey Smyth

I would say the biggest jumps between Unk and Nome are Cim, Jessie, Dallas and Ramey.

Thanks Tamra you rock!

sarsmile wrote:I'd be curious to see the correlation between the musher's ages and their movement up or down the standings. Based on my very limited knowledge of the mushers, seems like it was more of the young guns who chose to move on through the storm and the older folks who played it safe. Their ages don't seem to be listed on the website, though, and I'm too lazy to go look them up, so I'll leave that analysis to some other statistician

I remember at the finish banquet Sonny talking about the storms in the 80's and that the mushers who had been there then were more cautious this year to just rush out in it. He noted himself, Jeff, Martin. He said it was the young mushers who needed money that risked going out first.

tamra wrote: I remember at the finish banquet Sonny talking about the storms in the 80's and that the mushers who had been there then were more cautious this year to just rush out in it. He noted himself, Jeff, Martin. He said it was the young mushers who needed money that risked going out first.

And the older mushers who know just how bad it can get that hung back. That was kind of my thought too. In any event, I'm glad everyone arrived safely and hope they are all pleased with their races.

there is an elder brain ( untrusted) here that works/creaks/ in protest/ in fits and starts. I have to count back to when I first had computer access ( 1995 at work, 1997 at home) and then ask myself when I discovered /joined Cabela's.... and I can't pinpoint the year. "98? ?99?

I'm remembering a coastal storm ( 10 +/- years ago) that prevented the IAF from staffing the White Mountain CP before the front runners arrived, and I think it was Martin Buser who got there first, and he subbed up as the CP monitor. He was followed into WM by Dee Dee and Rick Swenson, Mitch Seavey and < I forget who else and never mind my disremeberance of order > but there were a slug of teams holed up there for their mand 8 on their own recognizance before ITC and IAF could actually staff the CP.

Breeze