Post Iditarod numbers and thoughts

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Post Iditarod numbers and thoughts

Postby mira » Fri Mar 17, 2017 2:29 pm

The last teams are on trail between Elim and White Mountain, but I tried to look a bit of what really happended on the Yukon river. Looking at this, I kind of understand why I had problems to hang in on the standings.

A total of 51 mushers took their 8 hour rest before the 24 hour mandatory rest. This is an opportunity that only exists on this route.

An overview of where mushers rested:
In Tanana, 38 rested mand. 8
In Ruby, 12 rested mand. 8
In Ruby, 12 rested mand. 24
In Galena, 2 rested mand. 8
In Galena, 44 rested mand. 24
In Huslia, 2 rested mand. 8
In Huslia, 13 rested mand. 24
In Koyukuk, 9 rested mand. 8
In Nulato, 2 rested mand. 8
In Kaltag, 5 rested mand. 8

Mitch Seavey was the only musher who did not take any mandatory rest before Huslia... and he had one of the fastest time into Huslia, Nicolas Petit were faster.

Dallas Seavey took 24 in Ruby and 8 in Koyukuk.
Nicolas Petit took 8 in Galena and 24 in Huslia.
Joar L. Ulsom took 24 in Galena and 8 in Koyukuk.
Jessie Royer, 8 in Ruby and 24 in Huslia
Wade Marrs, 24 in Ruby and 8 in Koyukuk
Ray Redington jr., 8 in Tanana, 24 in Galena
Aliy Zirkle, 8 in Ruby and 24 in Galena
Peter Kaiser, 24 in Galena, 8 in Koyukuk
Paul Gebhardt, 24 in Galena, 8 in Kaltag
Jeff King, 8 in Tanana, 24 in Ruby

Robert Redington, 24 in Galena, 8 in Kaltag
Sebastien Vergnaud, 8 in Ruby, 24 in Galena

Not very surprising it might look like the teams that were able to take their mandatory rest late gained an advantage, maybe the resting of dogs made Mitch able to go that far and keep the speed? All the five top mushers took their latest mandatory rest in Huslia or later.
Were the trail to Huslia harder than expected? Nicolas took 8 in Galena and then 24 in Huslia, 8 hours weren't enough? He had a fast time coming into Huslia.
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Re: Post Iditarod numbers and thoughts

Postby fladogfan » Fri Mar 17, 2017 3:08 pm

mira wrote:Were the trail to Huslia harder than expected? .


I seem to remember reading that the trail to Huslia was good for Mitch but broke down quickly for following teams. Reason given was that it is not a trail that is used on a regular basis and didn't have the snow packed down layer by layer as it fell during the winter. The only packing was down by the infamous trail breakers.
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Re: Post Iditarod numbers and thoughts

Postby tanglefoot » Fri Mar 17, 2017 3:24 pm

Good work!

Need to re read when i have a minute and digest it all
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Re: Post Iditarod numbers and thoughts

Postby elsietee » Fri Mar 17, 2017 7:00 pm

I think the run up to Huslia - and more specifically back down to Koyukuk - was the make or break of many teams' strategies this year.

I think this is where Dallas lost the race (if he ever had the chance of winning) - when he had to pull over and rest for two hours 20 miles outside of Huslia when the temps went up to 40? Wade also said they were suffering that afternoon (note that Nic did the run in the night, while Mitch's rest coincided beautifully with the heat of the day, the previous day).

Then for the following teams, the trail south again deteriorated very quickly - Jessie said it had a fine crust on it that would break very easily, and that each team she passed, the trail got a little bit better - and that she was glad she was up front and not wallowing around behind many other teams.

More tellingly, they were told the trail from Huslia to Koyukuk was good, so several mushers were banking on that for their strategy - only to find the trail very slow and the dogs having to work harder than expected.
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Re: Post Iditarod numbers and thoughts

Postby mamamia » Fri Mar 17, 2017 7:36 pm

Facinating numbers Mira. I know it was extremely difficult this year to understand what was going on with these mushers. Their schedules and plans were so varied.

Good points Elsietee. I think a lot of mushers would have liked to take their mandatory rests later but the trail and this year's doggie sickness forced them to change their plans. You could see it in Dallas' face when he had to pull over in Ruby. That was not what he wanted to do.
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Re: Post Iditarod numbers and thoughts

Postby mira » Sat Mar 18, 2017 3:35 am

Thanks elsietee I kind of thought it was something but couldn't really remember.

Aliy didn't plan for 24 in Galena either and I guess Jeff really hadn't planned for Ruby as well.

I wonder most about Nicolas, he rested 8 in Galena and 24 in Huslia and had a good travel between.. So was this his plan?
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Re: Post Iditarod numbers and thoughts

Postby elsietee » Sat Mar 18, 2017 9:53 am

mira wrote:
I wonder most about Nicolas, he rested 8 in Galena and 24 in Huslia and had a good travel between.. So was this his plan?


From his account, he doesn't have a plan, just runs the dogs to what they need (something that I think has bitten him in the past, but he appears to be getting good at it.) Jessie Royer has a similar approach.

How this works in terms of dog food drops I don't know - do they just ship an above-average amount to all the CPs in the middle of the race, so they have that option?
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Re: Post Iditarod numbers and thoughts

Postby mira » Sat Mar 18, 2017 2:45 pm

That will be expensive! But I don't know.. I'm quite sure Aliy and Dallas at least didn't plan for taking their 24h in the cp they did, but it isn't a problem.

Of course they have to plan for stuff that might happen, I recall reading an earlier year some musher who shipped it all to McGrath and then just haul it to ophir or Takotna or whatever.. But that's a long haul from Ruby to Huslia, so they must ship some extra.. I guess? Not sure how this logistics works out. Even though if you have a carefully planned plan, you still have to adjust it to the dogs. :?

Actually, I'm trying to plot a timeline graph, pretending that it was a mass start, just to see how they where.. mostly to see if it can be useful next year. I'm almost there, but the graph doesn't look good and I haven't that much time. In the meantime I looked at the speed, of course the speed doesn't tell us that much.. or it does, but it is "ruined" everytime a musher rest on trail, since I've only used the checkpoint in and out data... They are easy accessible. But this means that a musher who does not rest (much) on trail gets a higher average speed, the checkpoints in () is which leg the speed were into.. like Mitch fastest leg where into Kaltag. Notable is Robert Redingtons high average speed.

Mitch Seavey, total rest in cp: 73:04,
total time enroute: 122:08,
fastest speed: 12.05 (Kaltag),
slowest speed: 6.37 (Ruby),
average speed 8.70
Dallas Seavey, total rest in cp: 59:29,
total time enroute: 138:23,
fastest speed: 11.02 (Kaltag),
slowest speed: 5.17 (Huslia),
average speed 7.68
Nicolas Petit, total rest in cp: 76:50,
total time enroute: 120:55,
fastest speed: 12.65 (Kaltag),
slowest speed: 6.12 (Ruby),
average speed 8.65
Joar Leifseth Ulsom, total rest in cp: 60:22,
total time enroute: 141:26,
fastest speed: 11.75 (Kaltag),
slowest speed: 5.47 (Koyuk),
average speed 7.52
Jessie Royer, total rest in cp: 64:12,
total time enroute: 139:46,
fastest speed: 11.85 (Kaltag),
slowest speed: 5.38 (Huslia),
average speed 7.74
Wade Marrs, total rest in cp: 78:48,
total time enroute: 131:01,
fastest speed: 11.10 (Kaltag),
slowest speed: 5.73 (Koyukuk),
average speed 7.82
Ray Redington Jr, total rest in cp: 71:49,
total time enroute: 141:00,
fastest speed: 12.48 (Kaltag),
slowest speed: 4.91 (Koyukuk),
average speed 7.84
Aliy Zirkle, total rest in cp: 69:33,
total time enroute: 143:58,
fastest speed: 11.32 (Nenana),
slowest speed: 5.37 (Unalakleet),
average speed 7.44
Peter Kaiser, total rest in cp: 68:48,
total time enroute: 145:31,
fastest speed: 11.60 (Kaltag),
slowest speed: 5.36 (Koyukuk),
average speed 7.29
Paul Gebhardt, total rest in cp: 65:37,
total time enroute: 148:33,
fastest speed: 11.29 (Nenana),
slowest speed: 4.63 (Koyukuk),
average speed 7.34
Jeff King, total rest in cp: 78:18,
total time enroute: 137:27,
fastest speed: 11.39 (Nenana),
slowest speed: 4.91 (Unalakleet),
average speed 8.04
Jason Mackey, total rest in cp: 69:28,
total time enroute: 150:47,
fastest speed: 10.84 (Nenana),
slowest speed: 4.50 (White-Mountain),
average speed 7.11

Sebastien Vergnaud, total rest in cp: 86:54,
total time enroute: 137:11,
fastest speed: 10.52 (Kaltag),
slowest speed: 5.65 (Koyukuk),
average speed 7.56

Robert Redington, total rest in cp: 88:14,
total time enroute: 133:03,
fastest speed: 11.06 (Kaltag),
slowest speed: 4.35 (Koyukuk),
average speed 8.02
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