by elsietee » Sun Feb 10, 2019 4:59 pm
Luckily I input some of these last night, since the data has vanished off the maps.
Several different strategies.
Brent - run long, rest, run long to 101, rest long
Allen - run medium, take a short break, run short, rest long outside Central, skip Central, keep going to 101, skip 101
This puts Allen only an hour behind Brent - but with an extra 30 or so miles on his dogs legs. He's banking on the 8 hours compulsory at Two Rivers to rejuvenate his dogs and therefore only be an hour or so behind Brent in case Brent's dogs are slow on the last 70 mile to the finish/Brent oversleeps (has happened)/Brent's dogs are reluctant to leave (has happened, although I think it happened when Brent used the same strategy that Allen is now using. Since this year Brent has taken plenty of rest, I don't see it happening). Another possibility is Allen's dogs get tired from the long run (although they started with good rest outside Central, it's still mountainous terrain) and it takes him even longer to get to Two Rivers, putting him much more than an hour behind. Look to see how his arrival time compares to Brent's. If it's more than an hour, that's time he lost on this run.
Hans/Michelle - split the Circle/Central run into two, rest in Central.
I noticed this morning that Denis and Matt were resting at the exact same mileage on Birch Creek as Hans and Michelle the night before - must be a good spot. Although Denis was not there long. Denis rested really long in Circle, and made the journey to Central in one very long run, with only one short stop about half way. Matt is still losing speed, but will Denis' push hurt his team, speed-wise?
Latest tracker tracking - I again flagged anything "out of normal range" in red:
Brent:
Run to Circle (54 miles): 7.5
Rest Circle: 4
Run to mile 747 on Birch Creek (55 miles): 8 (this run was like clockwork - run 2 hours, snack; run 2 hours, take a 20 min break; run 2 hours, snack; run 2 hours, take a long break)
Rest on Birch Creek: 3.5 (this is where he had difficulty two years ago, so you have to guess he was watching those dogs like a hawk. As far as I know, this is the only place so far during the race he cut the dogs' rest)
Run to 101 (44 miles): 7.5 (the interesting part about that, is opting to go up over Eagle at the end of the run, when the dogs could be tired, v. after a break at Central, the way the other teams did).
Rest in 101: 4 (and then he darted out of there 50 mins before Allen arrived)
Run to Two Rivers
Allen:
Run to Circle (54 miles): 8.5
Rest Circle: 5
Run to mile 736 on Birch Creek (44 miles): 7+
Rest on Birch Creek: 3
Run to 6 miles before Central (20 miles): 5
Rest to 6 miles before Central (mile 756): 4 (interesting location to bank rest on the dogs. Is Central busy and noisy? Did he want them to [i]really sleep? Did he want to take a good look at Hans and Michelle as they passed?)[/i]
Run to 101 and on past!
Hans:
Run to Circle (54 miles): 7.5
Rest Circle: 4:45
Run to mile 729 on Birch Creek (37 miles): 5.5
Rest on Birch Creek: 2.5
Run to Central (34 miles): 5.5
Rest Central: 4.5
Run to 101 (24 miles): 5 (the tracker suggests he was struggling on the Eagle climb, and although he said earlier in the race that his dogs climb well, he is down to 8 dogs. He def. stopped at the top to regroup. Michelle passed him on the summit. Up until this, I was with Mira and thought he was carrying speed - but also playing it very carefully - balancing what he was doing. I suspect a less experienced musher would not have kept this together as well as he has)
Michelle:
Run to Circle (54 miles): 7.5
Rest Circle: 4:45
Run to mile 727 on Birch Creek (35 miles): 5.5
Rest on Birch Creek: 1:45
Run to Central (36 miles): 5.45
Rest Central: 5
Run to 101 (24 miles): 4.5
Paige:
Run to Circle (54 miles): <7.5
Rest Circle: 5
Run to mile 741 on Birch Creek (48 miles): 7
Rest on Birch Creek: <5
Run to Central: 3.5
Matt:
Run to Circle (54 miles): 9
Rest Circle: 5
Run to mile 727 on Birch Creek (35 miles): 5:45
Rest on Birch Creek: 4
Run to Central (36 miles): 6?
Denis:
Run to Circle (54 miles): <8.5
Rest Circle: 6:45
Run Central: 11+ (Looks like he snacked them once an hour, and stopped for a longer snack half way along Birch Creek, but not long enough for the tracker to register a stop)
Rest in Central
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elsietee AT ponyhill DOT org
Repotted english person in the Sierra foothills, CA
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