IditaProject Forum

Hans icon keeps bouncing between Allen mile 750.4 and Paige mile 741.2. The tracker has Hans running with Allen at 388.7 mph, I even saw it at over 400mph when he was put back next to Paige.

Now his tracker has him running a normal speed 7.1 very near Allen.

So, will this oops by the trackers mess up their calculations of speed, rest, run times?

When I clicked on Hans' full history it is really bonkers starting in Circle. Seems to be ok now.

Ha Ha! Yesterday it made a quick trip off the coast of Asia!

This looks like Brent's to loose.

But I think we have a race on for runner up. Hans is three miles behind Allen but I think Hans has a faster team. Michelle isn't too far behind either. The teams are getting close to two rivers, will that have any impact on Allen's team?

Be interesting to see how long they stop before heading up Rosebud. And it looks like Hans and Michelle are headed up the summit about a mile apart.

I think it must have fallen in some overflow, or something. I think his blue tracker went bananas, while his white one was still blipping appropriately:

He's currently taking a break at the top of Eagle Summit, while Michelle went on by (which hopefully means he's just doing that - taking a breather.

Latest tracker oogling coming shortly.

mira wrote:Thank you so much elsietee!

Regarding the computation of run times between Dawson and Eagle I think you did a small error (subtracting instead of adding), ...

It was late and I was struggling.

(I live in Pacific time, my family live in England (8 hours ahead) and my brother lives in Queensland (16 hours ahead... or [8 hours behind but tomorrow], Australia. I can keep track of them when I'm at home, but we visited my brother over Christmas and trying to work those time differences backwards totally threw me ).

but it really doesn't matter because you did it for all of them....

that's what I figured when I realised last night that the trackers were reporting in Pacific time, with the Results in AKST... I wondered where I got all my times from, but decided in the end that I'd figured them all out the same way, so it didn't matter.

Anyhow, i'm late to the party. Thank you for all your excellent analysis, life sort of got in the way for me this year, so it's great with someone who makes it easy to catch up.

I had to work the entire race - which is good in some ways because it means I'm sitting in front of the computer and can take mini-breaks to look at what's going on. But it also means I'm a little fried

Luckily I input some of these last night, since the data has vanished off the maps.

Several different strategies.

Brent - run long, rest, run long to 101, rest long
Allen - run medium, take a short break, run short, rest long outside Central, skip Central, keep going to 101, skip 101

This puts Allen only an hour behind Brent - but with an extra 30 or so miles on his dogs legs. He's banking on the 8 hours compulsory at Two Rivers to rejuvenate his dogs and therefore only be an hour or so behind Brent in case Brent's dogs are slow on the last 70 mile to the finish/Brent oversleeps (has happened)/Brent's dogs are reluctant to leave (has happened, although I think it happened when Brent used the same strategy that Allen is now using. Since this year Brent has taken plenty of rest, I don't see it happening). Another possibility is Allen's dogs get tired from the long run (although they started with good rest outside Central, it's still mountainous terrain) and it takes him even longer to get to Two Rivers, putting him much more than an hour behind. Look to see how his arrival time compares to Brent's. If it's more than an hour, that's time he lost on this run.

Hans/Michelle - split the Circle/Central run into two, rest in Central.

I noticed this morning that Denis and Matt were resting at the exact same mileage on Birch Creek as Hans and Michelle the night before - must be a good spot. Although Denis was not there long. Denis rested really long in Circle, and made the journey to Central in one very long run, with only one short stop about half way. Matt is still losing speed, but will Denis' push hurt his team, speed-wise?

Latest tracker tracking - I again flagged anything "out of normal range" in red:

Brent:
Run to Circle (54 miles): 7.5
Rest Circle: 4
Run to mile 747 on Birch Creek (55 miles): 8 (this run was like clockwork - run 2 hours, snack; run 2 hours, take a 20 min break; run 2 hours, snack; run 2 hours, take a long break)
Rest on Birch Creek: 3.5 (this is where he had difficulty two years ago, so you have to guess he was watching those dogs like a hawk. As far as I know, this is the only place so far during the race he cut the dogs' rest)
Run to 101 (44 miles): 7.5 (the interesting part about that, is opting to go up over Eagle at the end of the run, when the dogs could be tired, v. after a break at Central, the way the other teams did).
Rest in 101: 4 (and then he darted out of there 50 mins before Allen arrived)
Run to Two Rivers

Allen:
Run to Circle (54 miles): 8.5
Rest Circle: 5
Run to mile 736 on Birch Creek (44 miles): 7+
Rest on Birch Creek: 3
Run to 6 miles before Central (20 miles): 5
Rest to 6 miles before Central (mile 756): 4 (interesting location to bank rest on the dogs. Is Central busy and noisy? Did he want them to [i]really sleep? Did he want to take a good look at Hans and Michelle as they passed?)[/i]
Run to 101 and on past!


Hans:
Run to Circle (54 miles): 7.5
Rest Circle: 4:45
Run to mile 729 on Birch Creek (37 miles): 5.5
Rest on Birch Creek: 2.5
Run to Central (34 miles): 5.5
Rest Central: 4.5
Run to 101 (24 miles): 5 (the tracker suggests he was struggling on the Eagle climb, and although he said earlier in the race that his dogs climb well, he is down to 8 dogs. He def. stopped at the top to regroup. Michelle passed him on the summit. Up until this, I was with Mira and thought he was carrying speed - but also playing it very carefully - balancing what he was doing. I suspect a less experienced musher would not have kept this together as well as he has)

Michelle:
Run to Circle (54 miles): 7.5
Rest Circle: 4:45
Run to mile 727 on Birch Creek (35 miles): 5.5
Rest on Birch Creek: 1:45
Run to Central (36 miles): 5.45
Rest Central: 5
Run to 101 (24 miles): 4.5

Paige:
Run to Circle (54 miles): <7.5
Rest Circle: 5
Run to mile 741 on Birch Creek (48 miles): 7
Rest on Birch Creek: <5
Run to Central: 3.5

Matt:
Run to Circle (54 miles): 9
Rest Circle: 5
Run to mile 727 on Birch Creek (35 miles): 5:45
Rest on Birch Creek: 4
Run to Central (36 miles): 6?

Denis:
Run to Circle (54 miles): <8.5
Rest Circle: 6:45
Run Central: 11+ (Looks like he snacked them once an hour, and stopped for a longer snack half way along Birch Creek, but not long enough for the tracker to register a stop)
Rest in Central

I'm pretty sure there is a nice resting place close to the Southern end of Birch Creek part of the trail. It might of been Brent that even over slept there not so many years ago.
I also watch the spot near where the trail curves NW toward Central (Circle Hot Springs), It really wet there and I think somebody even had to help another musher that had gotten drenched there.