Nikolai- McGrath- Takotna - Ophir

[Another UK Fan]

Tx is the weather still tough? Last report was it was snowing and blowing and the snow is like talcum powder. Joar said there's no point going to Idit if it's snowing. Has it eased up a bit? Enough to be brave safely and make the move?

[mira]

I think he said it wasn't any point of going if it's snowing and blowing, the snow itself wasn't a big problem. It seem to me that he experienced that last year, you just use too much power to get there.

[Another UK Fan]

Yes it seemed that to me too. More about the power used.

Just checked the live stream from Takotna and it looks like it's still snowing - but the screen is frozen so the image could be out of date.

[mira]

I looked at the different weather models at [url]windy.com[/url], to me it looks like it is smart to do 24 now and then go. There some wind the next hours, then probably more calm, before more wind sets in. I guess Aliy and Nicolas stays for 24 in Ophir. Both of them stayed for 4 hours in McGrath.

[txbennett]

8 of Aliy's dogs ran the Quest with Allen where they dealt with long runs and deep snow and wind. Maybe she will 24 in Ophir, but that gives Nic and Joar a definite advantage. If Aliy is racing to win this stretch from Takotna and Ophir then through Ruby (on the northern route) is where she has made strategic moves in the past.

We will only know in a few more hours.

[mira]

8 of Aliy's dogs ran the Quest with Allen where they dealt with long runs and deep snow and wind. Maybe she will 24 in Ophir, but that gives Nic and Joar a definite advantage. If Aliy is racing to win this stretch from Takotna and Ophir then through Ruby (on the northern route) is where she has made strategic moves in the past.

We will only know in a few more hours.

That is true, she usually splitted the run from Takotna to Ruby in three, resting before and after Ophir. But then I'm pretty sure she took 24h in Takotna. As Joar said in the interview, you want to put the storm between you and the chasers. We just have to wait... I guess.

[mira]

I was trying to look at at rest/run times based on the GPS trackers, but the history is a bit baffled, so no go. But Nicolas seems to be on a schedule of long runs and four hours rest.

[libby the lab]

Definitely think Aliy is trying to change it up. When was the last time she didn't 24in Takotna?

[mira]

Jessie Holmes and Aaron has also left Takotna, Aliy is almost into Ophir and Nicolas is still there.

I tried to put together something showing their elapsed time, since they haven't done their 24 yet. It shows that it is very tight, but it looks like Aliys position is not so good at it seems and that Joar actually were in lead when they reached Takotna (okay, not really a surprise).

elapsed_time.png

[txbennett]

If Aliy and/or Jessie Holmes and/or Aaron Burmeister leave Ophir after a short (3 to 4 hour) rest they can follow Trail Breaker's snow machine trail to Iditarod. The next teams after taking their 24 hour break will be punching through fresh snow and to some extent breaking their own trail.

It's fun to speculate, since only the mushers themselves know their strategic plans.