IditaProject Forum

Another copy/paste from Joar’s FB

Iditarod Update- by Jen Seavey

As the leaders push into their 24 hour mandatory layovers, we can gain some insights into their positions by analyzing the race up to Nikolai. This is a key point where we see all of the different strategies temporarily converge. Being within a few hours of the first team to Nikolai is a reliable indicator of who's in position for a win.

Joar was the first musher to Nikolai, arriving at 6:36am. There were ten teams that arrived within the next 4 hours. The only team that did not rest in Nikolai was Nic, who knocked out a massive ten and a half hour run from his camp outside of Rohn all the way to McGrath. All of these guys either camped outside of Rohn or rested in Rohn, so it's a fair comparison to add up how much rest they have taken so far during the race upon arriving in Nikolai. Note that these rest times are close estimates based on the GPS analytics, and that I didn't count any stop less than an hour. Teams are in order of arrival.

Joar Ulsom- 13h
Pete Kaiser- 14h
Jessie Royer- 14h
Aliy Zirkle- 14h
Matt Hall- 15h
Nic Petit- 14h
Ryan Reddington- 13h
Richie Diehl- 14h
Travis Beals- 13.5h
Mitch- 14.5h
Jesse Holmes- 17.5

Despite drastically different strategies, their accumulated rest is surprisingly even.This race is closer than it seems at first glance, with well rested, fast teams within a few hours of the lead in very competitive positions. Based purely on the rest factor, I'd say Travis and Ryan are probably not in contention for first place, but Mitch, Richie, and Jesse Holmes should be considered a real threat to the front runners. Joar and Nic are the teams to beat and are setting the tone for Iditarod

There she goes!!! Aliy departed Ophir following Trail Breaker to Iditarod. She is out to win this year and she is taking a risk to position herself in the top tier.

Go Aliy and SPK!!!

Go Aliy!!!!!!

HOLY COW ALIY!

It has seemed like a very close race this year ...and now Aliy makes an interesting move. Martin took near 4 hours in McGrath and he's now headed to Ophir - I'd guess he's not stopping there.

Oh... I must admit I am a bit surprised, but fun she is trying. Two hour rest wasn't much so I guess she plans to take a longer break at that for instance Don's cabin. It is 36 miles from Ophir.

I remember 10 years ago, then we actually got a break during the 24, the race kind of where in shutdown. These days, with mushers taking 24 everywhere between Nikolai and Yukon River it is always something happening, somewhere.

If I remember correctly there are a couple of shelters between Ophir and Iditarod where Aliy could take short breaks (or one long break). I believe that one year Lance made this long run with only snack breaks. If the dogs can keep their energy up they will get a long rest of 24 hour plus the start time differential before heading out from Iditarod. This is similar to the Quest 36 hour break in Dawson after long runs, so the team is trained to compete with this schedule.

A few teams will catch up and probably pass Aliy while her team is resting, but her team will have a more recent long break and perhaps more energy for the long haul up the Yukon and over to Unalakleet. It's still a dog race to Nome, but there will probably be a lead pack of four to five teams racing from Unualakleet to Nome.

Interesting, eh?

Aliy doesn't have the speed to beat Nic or Joar, but if she can get to ID and the weather closes in behind her, it may slow them down enough to work in her favor. Also agree that she's changing things up completely this year, trying something different (all the while, pretending to lolly-gag along - has she been faking it? ). If she can't beat them on speed, she'll need to do it on a strategy that is completely off the wall - so it'll be fascinating to see how it works out for her. Doing some rough calcs, she's only travelled at 5.4 mph since leaving Ophir nearly 18 miles/3.5 hours ago.

I hadn't thought of the fact that she's following the trail breakers, so that would work in her favor. OTOH, they were saying last night that the snow is very powdery and blows easily and with wind, it could blow the trail over very quickly. Last year, Joar breaking trail to ID cost him at least two hours of extra time <ouch> over the 80 mile run (coupled with having to backtrack to Ophir to get people food for himself).

Agreed that her dogs are very capable of breaking trail, but I'm not sure that kind of weather will slow either Nic or Joar down that much.

It will hurt Pete Kaiser, for sure. In a quick interview that I sneak-watched last night before going to bed, he said that they don't have any snow at all out where he is, so the dogs aren't used to it. When they hit glare ice, they go like heck, but as soon as they're in soft snow they don't really know what to do and slow way down. He was looking really good this year, but I fear that might be over with now if the weather behaves as forecast.

I agree elsietee, and I really, really love that she is going for it. It was quite clear in YQ that they don't have the speed, so she have to try something different. But this reminds me a bit too much of last year, it felt like it took forever for Joar to get there. Of course, Joar did win, but it was more despite going to Iditarod, not because of it. But it made it all of the sudden even more interesting to follow.

I felt the same about Peter Kaisers team, I hope his dogs quickly figure out how to run in snow, they are sled dogs after all Anyone know how the condition are on the coast? Is it icy or snowy there?

Thanks to all you who know how to read and figure out what's going on with the teams.

BTW at 4:20pm EST, Martin Buser is in 5th place go Martin.

And as always GOALIYGO !!!!