by Fool » Mon Mar 08, 2021 11:01 am
Iditarod Download, The Contenders:
The first musher, Aaron Peck, hit the trail at 1:30pm AKST on Sunday. But no one cares who leads off the start-- it’s all about who crosses the finish line in that position 8-9 days later. Who is going to take home the championship in this year’s Iditarod?
In many respects it’s a wide open field this year. Last year’s champion isn’t returning. There hasn’t been a repeat champion since the Dallas Seavey era from 2014-2016. There are many strong mushers in this year’s field who have shown glimpses of having what it takes if everything comes together just right.
This year is poised to possibly end up as one of the closest and most intense finishes ever. A shorter course that avoids the perils of the Alaskan coast means it’s likely that there will be many, many teams in contention even as the race nears its end. In recent history, it hasn’t been until the last 200 miles of the course when the top contenders really start to pull away from the pack. This could be a race to the finish unlike any before in Iditarod history.
So who is going to be in that top ten heading back to Deshka Landing?
The Favorite: Dallas Seavey
Competitors are probably hoping Dallas has lost his edge in his years away from the Iditarod, but until someone proves it, he has to be the team to beat in this year’s Iditarod. Over the years, Dallas Seavey has proven to be one of the hardest training, smartest, and most innovative mushers out there. Dallas Seavey with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove? Watch out world. And that’s ignoring the fact that Mitch Seavey is not running this year, and is freely sharing his dog team and expertise with Dallas. (Let’s not forget that Mitch finished second in last year’s race.) (Although it’s not quite as simple as combining two super teams - Dallas’ kennel has suffered in the turmoil of the past couple of years, so it’ll be interesting to see how his team this year shakes out.) Dallas, to me, is the favorite to win until someone proves otherwise.
Competing for the Win: Nicolas Petit, Joar Leifseth Ulsom, Jessie Royer, Pete Kaiser
There are a number of mushers who will be in the hunt in this year’s race, but these four have been there before. Pete and Joar already have championships, Jessie Royer has placed third the past two years, Nicolas Petit has been on the cusp of greatness only to fall short in consecutive years along the coast, and Brent Sass has taken home the championship in the Yukon Quest--will this be his year to do so in the Iditarod? All proven competitors who if things break the right way, could easily take home the win.
In the Hunt: Richie Diehl, Aaron Burmeister, Matt Hall, Paige Drobny, Travis Beals, Aliy Zirkle, Jessie Holmes, Ramey Smyth, Brent Sass, Ryan Redington
Expect your top ten to contain many of these names. And it wouldn’t be a shock to see one of these teams take the ultimate victory. Travis Beals, Jessie Holmes, Richie Diehl, and Ramey Smyth all have top ten finishes in recent years and are itching to take that next step into Iditarod legend. Richie is coming off an impressive win in the Kusko 300. Ryan Redington is always a wildcard - in recent years he’s been as likely to scratch as to finish the race. But he has a fast team, and this year that might just be the ticket to success. Paige Drobny, Matt Hall, and Aaron Burmeister have shown steady improvement over the years and are always in the hunt - they just need things to come together for one magical run. And you can never count out Aliy Zirkle.
Making a Move: Jeff Deeter, Mille Porsild, Kristy Berington
Jeff Deeter has been steadily moving up the ranks since his first competitive Iditarod start in 2018. Mille Porsild, last year’s Rookie of the Year, could be poised to take another jump this year. The Berington twins have been steadily improving. This year it’s Kristy’s turn with the “A” team -- how far can they go?
Rookie of the Year: Brenda Mackey, Joshua McNeal
Brenda Mackey comes from Iditarod bloodlines. The niece of Lance Mackey and daughter of Rick Mackey, expectations are high for her rookie debut--can she live up to the family name? And Joshua McNeal is another rookie who has a chance to make a splash. He may be a rookie--but his kennel is founded with the dogs of long-time Iditarod Ken Anderson, who placed 17th in the 2017 Iditarod. It’ll be interesting to see how he does in his first 1,000 mile race.
Surprises: Martin Buser, Dan Kaduce, Gunnar Johnson
Martin Buser took last year "off" to run his kennel's puppy team in the Iditarod. But historically he's known for fast teams - does he have one more year in him to try to chase down his elusive 5th Iditarod Championship? Dan Kaduce last ran the Iditarod in 2014.. Although never a regular Iditarod competitor, he’s a respected musher and is coming off a win of the Summit Quest 300. How will he do in this year’s race? Gunnar Johnson is from Duluth, MN where he resigned this year as the City Attorney amidst a scandal about his leadership practices. He’s raced the Iditarod before, but has never been competitive. This year his team placed 3rd in the Copper Basin 300, so it’ll be interesting to see if he’s able to carryover that success to the much longer Iditarod.
The Wildcard: New course, new strategies
The greatest wildcard in this year’s race is the course. The normal course has been raced for so many years that strategies are pretty well laid out and it's a little easier for teams to gauge how they're measuring up, especially early on. But for these year’s race mushers are going to have to adapt on the fly to figure out the best decisions for their dog teams. Where are teams going to take their 24-hour and 8-hour mandatory rests? How will having to cross the Alaska Range and Farewell Burn twice impact the race? Because the course is an out and back, the return trip will likely be on a fast, well-traveled trail that could favor teams with speed. As will the slightly shorter course. If there was ever a year for an upset, it’s this year, as speedy upstarts may have the advantage over teams that are experienced and strong, but have slightly lower top end speed. And with the race likely to remain close all the way down to the wire, mistakes will be costly--and decision making critical.
But a fast trail will only be in the cards if the weather cooperates. Opening conditions are likely to be relatively warm--and with snow possible as teams are crossing the range into the interior. Everyone is going to be playing this one by ear, and expect the top competitors to be keying off each other as much as they are trying to get everything they can out of their dog teams.
It’s going to be a good one. Here we go!