McGrath S - N - Rohn - RP - FL - Skwentna

[mira]

The return run of the interior and to the mandatory rest.

I think they used 1 day and 18 hours to Nikolai outbound. We know the trail were fast in the first legs, they have a mandatory eight in Skwentna but of course they are in the end of the race, not the start. About the same on the return trip, because of the mandatory rest? Time will show I guess

[libby the lab]

This is alot of checkpoints in one topic I surmise there will be plenty of posts!

[mira]

Sure, if it gets confusing we can split it.

[elsietee]

Top ten behind Dallas?

2. Ryan is currently 1h 45 mins behind him.
3. Aaron is 2h 20 mins behind
4. Brent, just left McG, will be 3h 10 mins behind
5. Travis if he takes 4 hour rest? he'll leave 4 hours behind [edit - he took a 5 hour rest]
6. Wade is on his 8, so he'll leave just over 4 hours behind
7. Mille should take 4 hours... leaves 4.5 hours behind? [edit - she took a 4.5 hour rest]
8. Michelle (where the heck did she come from?? )(answer, she did an 8 hour/~70 mile run from Don's Cabin) assume takes 4 hours - leaves 5 hours behind
9. Richie... just came off his 8 hour rest?... so takes 3:45? 5.5 hours behind
10. Pete... 6 hours behind?
11. Joar - 6:15 behind?
12. Jessie Royer - 4 hour rest? 6.5 hours behind.

That's a super-interesting, unusual top ten, eh? Many are not the usual suspects.

[libby the lab]

Mira one thread is good. I think there could be lots of action in this last third if the race!

[mira]

It's easier when all have finished their rests.. Dallas is almost in Nikolai, there are ten more mushers who have left McGrath, including Nicolas Petit who must have skipped some rest. I think he has a team that likes fast trails.

I wonder if Joar's team is not that speedy on the fast trails?

[tanglefoot]

Aaron and Brent blew through the cp and are on the way to rohn, people.... we have a race on our hands, this could be a close one!!!

[Fool]

This race got intense overnight! Aaron Burmeister is not giving up without a fight--on the run over to Nikolai, he made up almost 50 minutes on Dallas’s lead. (That was around 2.5 hours leaving McGrath.) Burmeister and Sass both went through Nikolai, camping around 10 miles down the trail. Seavey stopped in Nikolai for a 3 hour rest and as of this morning is still in the lead...but things just got a whole lot more interesting.

Burmeister also passed Ryan Redington on the trail. Redington had the slowest run time of all the teams to make it into Nikolai thus far--he might be done at this point.

It’s 48 miles to Nikolai, 72 miles to Rohn, 35 miles to Rainey Pass, 30 miles to Finger Lake, and then 40 miles to Skwenta. So a total of 225ish miles total. Brent and Aaron are likely breaking the run to Rohn into two longer runs, and then will also probably break up the Rainey Pass to Skwenta portion into two runs as well. (Unless someone gets crazy and puts a monster run in there somewhere.)

Usually Dallas would break up this section from Nikolai on into 4x45 mile runs (so a total of 5x45ish mile runs from McGrath). But with Sass and Burmeister chasing at his heels, he might break it up into 3x60 mile runs, similar to what he did from McGrath to Iditarod and back. If that’s the case, either Sass or Burmeister might have to put in a 90 mile run somewhere to have a hope of breaking Dallas’s lead. But there’s a risk in those flashy runs. As Dallas noted in an interview in McGrath yesterday:

"So often you see people doing really flashy stuff - a big monster run, and then have to take a huge rest afterwards - ... was that the easiest way for your team to have covered that trail. And usually if it was a noteworthy run, the answer is usually no. "

Watching Insider videos, what can’t be underestimated at this point is the mental aspect that comes into play at this point. There’s a strange sort of momentum to believing (or doubting) that you can win. Which mushers still have the confidence in their team (and in themselves) and are keeping up their positive attitude as the miles and lack of sleep start to wear on them. Aaron Burmeister is in this thing for the long haul. He’s been so close for so long, he’s run a GREAT race, his team is looking awesome, and almost more importantly--he believes he can win.

"This is my 20th Iditarod. I've won all of the 'first to' awards except the 'first to the finish'." - Aaron Burmeister

[libby the lab]

Aaron may begin dropping dogs to cut the amount of time it takes to take care of his team. Maybe in Rainy or Finger after they do the uphill work!

[Happy2BeHere]

(I keep looking for a "thank you" button to click on these posts!)

THANK YOU! terrific info and analysis