Unk-Shak-Koyuk-Elim-WM

[libby the lab]

The windy race up the coast has begun!!
Currently windy 8 degrees with a wind chill of -9 in Unk
Currently windy 5 degrees with a wind chill of -16 in Shak

[flowerpower]

Anybody want to make a guess at finishing time?

[Another UK Fan]

Check the weather forecast before making any guesses

Even factoring in the weather, we all know, here on this forum, that things can change . . . . eg sleeping with boots on

[elsietee]

Confusing because the clocks went forward last night (really confusing for me watching Dallas come in - my clocks had changed, but his in AK, an hour ahead, hadn't yet, so I really couldn't figure out the time difference - and I think the race clock was wrong by an hour for a while). If you rerun the tracker, it jumps from 1 am to 3 am.

Coming into Shak, the gap between them has closed from
Kaltag: 2 hrs 8 mins
Unk: 1 hr 50 mins
Shak: 1 hr 46 mins

Per the race stats, Dallas rested 3 hrs 16 mins in UNK.
Brent rested 15 miles past UNK in the Blueberry Hills for 3 hrs (from what I can tell, rerunning the tracker).

Brent has just reached the sea ice and is headed towards the shelter cabin on the spit.
Dallas went straight through Shak, but is stopped a couple of miles past it to snack and is on the move again.

[elsietee]

From Mushing Tech* an hour or so ago:

"This is turning into quite a race. It looks like Brent may have gained a little ground during this run, but only a little. If I were to guess (and it looks like I am), I'd guess that Brent's going to run to Koyuk. It's possible that he might stop at the shelter cabin and then run to Elim, although I think that would be about 90 miles. It looks likely that Dallas might run to Koyuk, although again, a 90-mile run. Runs of that length are unusual, although we've definitely seen a handful of them in the last few years. In 2020, the last year we had a real Yukon Quest, Brent's final run into Whitehorse was over 90 miles and he was very fast the entire run."

* someone on FB who crunches the numbers on races.

[elsietee]

Also from Mushing Tech re the trail:

"Local weather reports say that the strong winds that have been blowing across the state have been blowing sea ice offshore and that water's been opening up along the coast"

[elsietee]

View of the Trail Breaker route across Norton Sound.

Brent just hit the ice with good speed (clocked him at 9.2 mph just before this).

[elsietee]

This one from Danny Seavey yesterday (note, he mentioned in today's update that Dallas has put his dogs back on their harnesses, instead of just on their necklines):

"Can Jessie Holmes Catch the Front Mushers?
Brent Sass is still leading Iditarod 2022. He's completing his 8 hour mandatory in Kaltag, and can leave at 10:36am. He'll likely go from there to a remote camp about 3/4 of the way to Unalakleet, then skip UNK and go to Shaktoolik*.
Dallas is firmly in second, and likes his position. He just left Nulato with 10 dogs, mandatory rests completed. He'll go through Kaltag, camp at Tripod Flats, then on to Unalakleet. He'll be half a jump behind Sass the whole way to White Mountain. If this sounds familiar, we've been here before in 2016. Brent's lead was slightly smaller then, but Dallas liked the results. He's set himself up to run the same schedule**.
If you're watching his GPS, don't read too much into it, it's not working properly. He and Sass have been running nearly identical speeds since Nikolai, but the GPS keeps showing one or the other gaining wildly. It may be time for Iditarod to admit their expensive GPS overlay program doesn't work.
The interesting one is Jessie Holmes. He's running significantly faster than anyone else out there, but as he admitted in Galena, he may need to slow down. Dallas and Brent aren't trying to go fast, they recognize the danger of running fast, and are intentionally going slower. Dallas had 4 dogs off their tuglines at Galena, and was carrying 50lbs of food. Jessie absolutely can catch up, but the trick is how to gain 3 hours on Dallas and 6 on Brent without slowing down. He'll have to run faster, while resting the same or less, which will work for a while, but he'll slow down in the process. It's going to be fun to watch.
Sorry, my phone keeps ringing and I can't stay on track here, I'll hit post for now and try again later, Danny
* Brent is on his 2020 schedule: you can see it here: https://iditarod.com/race/2020/mushers/327-Brent-Sass/
** Dallas is on his 2016 schedule: https://iditarod.com/race/2016/mushers/ ... as-Seavey/"

[braider]

"It may be time for Iditarod to admit their expensive GPS overlay program doesn't work." ...I second that.

[elsietee]

And this is Danny's analysis from 30 mins ago:

"I'm going to steal Marysia Jastrzebski's markup idea, consider imitation the highest form of flattery:)

Brent went past Dallas' #1 stop at 11:20am. Dallas was 1:46 behind him leaving Shaktoolik, so if he gets there before 1:06 pm Dallas is gaining, although it's looking like it will be too little too late. Dallas needs to camp there, so he'll be even further behind. Dallas will likely get to Koyuk (or wherever Brents stops) about the time Brent leaves, but Dallas has to stop again at #2, while Brent could go non stop.

At this point, barring disaster, Dallas' remaining hope is that Brent slows down at the end of his long run into White Mountain, an area which is also super hilly and notoriously windy.

I didn't say it was a good plan, just his only plan:) Brent has run a great race, and his team looks really good, so it's hard to see him obliging.

Danny Seavey